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اطلاعات کتابشناختی
عنوان اصلی: تخمين تابع تقاضاي نفت منطقه خليج فارس
پدیدآورندگان : گروه علوم اقتصادي-دانشكده اقتصاد (پديدآور)
نوع : متن
جنس : پايان نامه
صاحب محتوا :

کتابخانه دیجیتالی دانشگاه تهران

وضعیت نشر :
مشخصات فیزیکی : جلدnull - ص 159
خلاصه : Estimation of international and regional demand for oil is a major preoccupation ofpolitical and economic decision-makers and an important consideration in all discussions,especially strategic decisions at the national, regional, and international levels.This is because the demand for oil as a national wealth increases constantly, while itssupply is hindered by growing restrictions beside the limitation of the number of suppliercountries.The Middle East region is the most important source of oil production in theworld, comprising about 60% of known oil reserves in the world. For this reason, anydevelopment in this region is of utmost importance for all the countries of the world.The countries of the Persian Gulf region, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq,Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates, supply a large proportion of the worldwide demandfor oil. Persian Gulf is a critical supplier of oil in the world, and despite thepropaganda that is generated mostly for producing psychological influences on the oilmarket, statistics show that the share of this region in worldwide oil market is increasing.The Middle East region hosts 61.5% of all proven oil reserves in the world.Moreover, production and export of oil from this region is cheaper and the Strait ofHormuz is the main conduit for transport of oil to all parts of the world. For this reason,this strait is one of the most important waterways and energy channels in theworld. The economic life of countries relies heavily on the security if this region. Alarge part of the world energy and about 40% of all oil export of the world is transportedvia Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. For this reason, investigation andestimation of oil demand function in the Persian Gulf region is very important. Sincethe Strait of Hormuz is the channel for about 90% of oil export from the countries ofthe Persian Gulf region and it is controlled by our country, we have attempted in thisstudy to provide an estimation of world demand for oil export from this region. Sinceno similar study has been performed previously on this topic and it is critical to appraisethe dependence of the world countries on the oil export from this region, wewere motivated to conduct this investigation.The results of this study are summarized below.Study Results1. Despite the low price elasticity of oil demand in the short run, the demandfunction for oil exported from the Strait of Hormuz has a relatively high price elasticityin the long-term period. For this reason, even if higher prices provoked by lowproduction of crude oil can temporarily increase the income of the exporting countries,but eventually they lead to substantial decrease in oil demand and decreased incomeof these countries, because this situation attracts other rivals to the market andadditionally, it makes other sources of energy more economical and encourages theconsumers to invest in energy saving techniques and increased efficiency in energyconsumption. For this reason, the countries of this region should consider both shorttermand long-term responses of consumer countries in the oil market towards theirdecisions and behavior.2. Another important conclusion, which is politically relevant for Iran, is the strategicnature of the Persian Gulf and oil exported from the Strait of Hormuz. The priceelasticity obtained both in the short-term and long-term studies is lower than that obtainedfor world oil demand and also for OPEC oil. Additionally, even in the long run,the price elasticity of oil demand is lower than 1, indicating that the world is heavilydependent on the oil exported from this region, and the price fluctuation has almost noAbstract2effect on the demand for oil.3. The findings show that the trend for substitution of novel energy sources foroil is slow, but constantly growing, so that in the long run, for each 1 unit increase inthe production of these energies, the demand for oil will decrease by 0.25 units.4. Another very important finding is the marked correlation between the demandfor oil in the long-term period and the gross national product of developed countries.Therefore, if the economic growth of these countries continues like before, an increasinggrowth in the demand for oil is to be expected.
یادداشت :
چكيده: به فارسي و انگليسي
كتابنامه: به فارسي و انگليسي
عنوان به انگليسي:Estimation of world oil demand function for Persian Gulf
گرايش اقتصاد انرژي
كارشناسي ارشد
شناسه : oai:ut.ac.ir:thesis/1-42100
تاریخ ایجاد رکورد : 1386/11/28
تاریخ تغییر رکورد : 1387/6/16
قیمت شيء دیجیتال : دارای قیمت

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